Commerce Development Research Institute (CDRI) announced today (7th) that "Index of Service Industry, ISI" is representing "tend to warm" yellow-red light and index scored of 105 points. Due to the recovery in major global markets are strong, Europe and the United States have entered the year-end festival stocking and demand for commodities so that our export momentum remained strong in October at a value of US $ 27.538 billion. Under the export momentum, the turnover performance of our wholesale industry entered third highest within this year. In October, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Double Tenth Holiday, the turnover of retail and catering industry increased 3.21% and 2.90%. The overall performance of the services industry in October remained a "tend to warm" yellow-red light.
In November, the demand of pulling in from the global market is in place, slightly affects our export strength and our growth performance in wholesale. In the domestic market, online shopping is stimulated by online festive campaign. In addition, the department store anniversary sales, also benefits the domestic retail and restaurant business. The index of service industry in November is expected to be fine-tuned to 104 points.
Christmas in December and year-end count-down parties, both can lift domestic consumption in retail and catering. As in global market,China is the largest market for Lunar New Year, and the stable economic performance will help the growth in our wholesale industry. The overall index of service industry in December is expected to return to 105 points.
Global Situation in October
From the perspective of consuming ability to view the entire domestic market demand in the United States, according to the Consumer Confidence Index of University of Michigan, it reached over 100 up to 100.7 in October, an increase of 13.5% over the same period last year. In October, sales of retail sales and catering services (excluding car sales) reached US $ 3,782.1 billion, an increase of 4.4% over the same period of last year, indicating that the consumption power in the United States is still strong. From the industry's performance, manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index were 58.7 and 60.1, indicating that the US industry is expanding fast. From the perspective of the employment market, the number of non-farm payrolls (private sector) in October increased by 1.951million from the same period of last year to 124.649 million and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.8% from the same period of last year to 3.9%. The inflation rate in October is 2.1%, proves that the U.S. domestic market is rapidly expanding. The U.S. economic is recovering, the import demand is expected to increase substantially in the first half of next year.
Consumming in eurozone is also improvingm consumer confidencewas1.1 in October, increased 7% from the same period last year. According to PMI index released by Markit, the retail sector remained in expansion in October (index was 51.1). At the same time, the inflation rate was 1.4%, further confirming the consumption in eurozone is continuing to improve. The manufacturing and service sectors are also expanding with PMIs 58.5 and 55.0. The unemployment rate in October was 8.8%, the lowest since 2009, and the demand for labor continued to rise. In October, the ESI score of 114.1 hit a new record high this year and the economy is expected to show a clear recovery in the first half of next year.
Japan's exports and imports in October were 66.9 trillion and 64.1 trillion JPY, rose 14.0% and 19.3% respectively year-on-year, and boosting the domestic production. The manufacturing and services PMI were 52.8 and 53.4, while the unemployment rate came to 2.7%, indicating that the industry continue to expand. However, consumption declined due to the typhoon, retail sales were 11.5 trillion JPY, 0.2% down from the same period of last year. However, the sales for wholesale rose to 37.8 trillion JPY, 4.9% raise per year. Retail industry is optimistic with domestic consumming. Overall, with the growth of exports, Japan's economy will continue to recover, though slowly. However, with the expansion of Europe and the United States markets, it is expected that the economic growth will keep accelerate next year.
In October, rates of exports and imports in China were 6.9% and 17.2%, figures of imports growth remained two digits. In industry, the PMI for manufacturing and service industries were 51.8 and 54.8, production activity continues to expand. In terms of consumption performance, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China amounted to 3,424.09 billion RMB, representing an increase of 10.3% as compared with same period of last year. The inflation rate was 1.86%, indicating a growth demand in the domestic market.
Domestic Situation in October
Our export value in October was 27.54 billion USD, a decrease of 3.0% over the same period of last year with an import volume of 22.34 billion USD, rose 0.1% over the same month of last year. This month's declination in exports was less correlated to domestic production performance and was affected by the typhoon last year, resulting in a high base period in October. The PMIs for manufacturing and services were 57.2 and 53.4, indicating that domestic industrial activity isactive and improving employment. The unemployment rate in October came to 3.75%, 0.2% down over the same period of last year. The number of non-agricultural employment was 1,082.5 thousand an increase of 1,073.5 thousand over the same period of previous year. In terms of consuming performance, the turnover of the retail trade was 368.13 billion USD, rose 3.21% over the same period of last year. The turnover of the catering industry was 38.36 billion USD, an increase of 2.90% over the same period of last year. Overall, the performance of our service industry is fair. In October, the ISI scored 105 points.
Indicator Score:
ISI indicator source is divided into three major directions, the securities market, salaries and operating. Following analysis as follows:
l Securities Market: The transaction value of the underlying shares of the commercial service industry slipped to 36.88 billion USD from 61.86 billion USD in October, the indicator score declined to 99.
l Salaries: The number of employment increased from 483.6 to 484.7 thousand in October, the indicator scores increased to 107 points.
l Operating : The tonnage of road freight, air cargo, and number of aircraft taking off and landing all increased significantly in October, the index score rose to 104 points.
