Commerce Development Research Institute (CDRI) announced today on 5th that the "Index of Service Industry, ISI" in May 2017 represents the red yellow light and scores of 105 points. The main reason is that the global boom in April, continue to stimulate our domestic production and consumption market, so that business-related data continued with positive heat.
June should be the industry off-season, but our export orders in May continued to grow, the annual growth rate of major goods in positive growth. Mainly due to the recovery of Europe and the United States market with Tesla Model3 is expected to mass production in July, to promote the optical, plastic rubber, machinery and other related goods exports, together with New Taiwan Dollar in June showed a demoted trend, benefit from the increase in our export strength, is expected to drive the performance of our wholesale industry. In the domestic demand, because in June for the domestic sightseeing off-season, may affect our retail and catering sales performance, is expected to make the June business services industry index score fine tune to 104 points, the lights still maintain as "trend of warm" red yellow light.
July into the mobile phone, tablet, desktop computers and notebook computers and other consumer electronics products in the second half of the pull goods and distribution preparation, together with the Internet of Things and automotive electronics and other emerging applications, the exportation is expected. Due to promising consumer electronics related industries, is expected to drive the domestic business services industry kinetic energy, but the fermentation period is expected to occur after September. July is the beginning of our summer vacation, cold drinks related to the restaurant industry and summer related products will enter the hot selling season, coupled with the emergence of tourist season, is expected to maintain the commercial service industry index score of 104 points, with red yellow light.
Global Situation: US Economy is Optimistic/EU Increased the Warmth/Japan Economy is Stable/ China Economy is Heating
The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was 97.1 in May, up 2.4% from a year earlier, while the OECD's consumer confidence index was 101.2, up 0.53% from a year earlier and consumer confidence continued to grow. Sales of retail and catering services (excluding car sales) in May came to USD 3,920.2 billion, up 5.3% from the same period last year, indicating that US private consumption is still quite hot. In terms of production, manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes were 54.9 and 56.9, respectively, indicating that production continued to expand. In the labor market, the number of non-farm payrolls in private sector was 12,383.1 million in May, an increase of 214.9 million over the same period last year. The unemployment rate fell by 0.4% from 4.1% in the same period last year. In the expansion that makes the country as a whole to improve, and thus promote the growth of private consumption, making retail sales continued to rise, the outlook is still optimistic in US economy. However, the Fed cut interest rates by 1 yards in June, as well as the reduction of the balance sheet program and other tightening policy started, so that consumer confidence growth slowed this month, the inflation rate fell from 2.2% to 1.9%, indicating that the US consumers still remain doubts about the future economic outlook, whether it will have a negative impact on the future economic trends, still need continued observation.
The European Union announced in May the eurozone consumer confidence index on the revised to -1.3, compared with the same period last year grew 6.0%, indicating that the euro area of private consumption continued to heat up. Germany real retail sales in May deflator (seasonally adjusted) to 118.9, annual growth rate of up to 5.69%, is expected to lead in the German service industry, the eurozone of private consumption is still growing opportunities. In terms of production, the manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers' indexes of the eurozone were 57.0 and 52.0, respectively. The OECD's business confidence index was 101.1, an increase of 0.8% over the same period last year, indicating that the industry continued to be optimistic as well as to the future of the eurozone economy. In the labor market, the overall unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate in the eurozone in April were 9.3% and 19.2%, respectively, down 0.9% and 2.4%, respectively over the same period last year. This shows that the growth of the eurozone industry should also prove that the eurozone consumption in expansion. Overall, the final demand for the eurozone continues to grow and the economy continues to recover, but the major economy will continue to hold elections, which may lead to uncertainty about the economic policies of countries, plus an inflation rate of 1.4%, compared with 1.9% in April, has fell 0.5 percentage points, indicating that the recovery of the eurozone is to be observed.
Japan's May export and import value of JPN 56.4 trillion and 55.2 trillion, respectively, an increase of 8.7% and 11.9%, trade activities continued to improve. The industrial production index (seasonally adjusted) was 100.4, which was 6.0% higher than the same period last year, driven by continued active trade in commodities. Manufacturing purchasing managers index of 52.4, the manufacturing sector showed expansion trend. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was 3.1% in May, down 0.08% from the same period last year and the number of employment was 6,519 million, a net increase of 1.1 million over the same period last year. In May, the service purchasing managers' index for the service industry was 53.0, which was above the level. But the inflation rate remained low, the May consumer index was 100.4, compared with the same period last year grew only 0.4%, indicating that Japan's economic growth remains slow.
China's import and export growth rate in May were 8.7% and 14.8%, still maintain the trade surplus performance. Driven by export growth, the May manufacturing index was 54.4, an increase of 1.9%, the official announcement of the manufacturing purchasing managers index of 51.7, showing the manufacturing boom remains in the expansion phase. China's total retail sales of consumer goods in May was RMB 29,459.2 billion, up 10.7% over the same period last year, while the official published non-manufacturing purchasing managers index of 54.9, showing consumers and manufacturers for the positive outlook in future. Overall, domestic and external demand continued to expand, is expected to continue to push up economic growth.
Domestic Situation: Consumers Spending in Heat During Manufacturing Off-Season
In global economy continued to improve, our export value in May was USD 255.2 billion, up 8.4% over the same period last year. Exports continued to grow, driving the performance of our manufacturing industry, manufacturing production index of 111.8 over the same period last year increased by 2.02%, manufacturing purchasing managers index of 58.7, indicating that the manufacturing boom is still in the expansion trend. The wholesale sector was affected by export growth, with turnover reaching USD 8,015.8 billion, an increase of 3.5%. The improvement of the production sector has led to the expansion of labor demand and the improvement of employment here. Non-farm sector employment in May was 1,077.6 million, representing a net increase of 10.8 million over the same period last year. The unemployment rate was 3.7%, down 0.2% from a year earlier. The improvement in the labor market helped boost domestic income and boosted the performance of the business services sector. Retail sales in May were USD 3,884.8 billion, up only 1.0% from the same period last year, while the turnover of the catering industry was USD 385.5 billion, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year. In addition, the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 55.4, indicating that the business services sector continued to expand. Overall, in May our exports continued to grow, driven by the overall performance of the business services, May ISI indicator score of 105 points, the signal for the boom shows red and yellow lights.
Indicator Score:
ISI indicators are divided into three major sources, respectively, for the securities market, salaries and operating conditions. In May 2017, the analysis shows:
l Securities Market: Business services industry-related stock price index and turnover of the value of the growth, May 2017 in the index score of 101 points.
l Salaries: The net entry rate of employees in the business services sector is declining, and the remaining items are either rising or flat. In May 2017, the index score was raised to 105 points.
l Operating Conditions: Only the wholesale, retail and catering industry turnover and Taiwan civil aviation airport landing movements were down, the remaining items remain upward or flat. In May 2017, the index score was 101 points.
June and July ISI Forecast:
June is the industry's low sale season here, but the global economy continues to expand, and Tesla is expected to mass production in July, to stimulate the optical, plastic & rubber, machinery and other related goods export performance, plus New Taiwan Dollar in June showed a demoted trend, it is expected to gradually increase the performance of our wholesale industry growth. In terms of people's livelihood needs, the various department stores have anniversary sales in June, will trigger a wave of department store retail sales growth. In addition, peak graduation season will increase catering business thanks to teacher gratitude feasts. In summary, the wholesale industry is gradually entering the peak season, and retail catering in heat, to estimate the value of the business service industry boom index score to 104 points, the signal shows red yellow lights.
July will continue to benefit from the production of consumer electronic products, especially in emerging applications, will focus on Internet of Things and automotive electronic applications for its main, so that the upstream chip, optical equipment, basic metal & plastic rubber products and other needs gradually rise, as it is expected to push up the demand for import and export for related manufacturers and promote the growth of the wholesale industry. Due to promising consumer electronics related industries, is expected to drive the domestic business services industry kinetic energy, but the fermentation period is expected to occur after September. Domestic consumption, July for the peak of graduation job tide, estimated interview clothing, accessories, make-up and out of residential supplies and other needs will be injected into the retail industry performance. Summer tourism tide, cold drinks related to the food and beverage industry have also entered the peak season, is expected to maintain the commercial service industry index score of 104 points, the signal shows red yellow lights.
