Commerce Development Research Institute (CDRI) announced today on 7th that the 2017 "Index of Service Industry, ISI" in January, when the global economic boom is in session, ignites our economic momentum. The service industry has been in "yellow" of the "tend to warm" light, which is the all-time high from past records in the last 2 years.
In the month of February, the activities of starting of the school reason, Lantern Festival and the 228 vacation, which result in that the consumption continues. The number of days of work and the stock market will be limited, which may have an impact on the commercial activities. As the index stands in score of 103, the lights turn back on behalf of the boom "stable" green light. Estimated in March, the export and domestic tourism of the traditional off-season, in the export of kinetic energy and private consumption strength slowed down, ISI index scores under repair of 102 points, the lights remain in green.
Current Global Status: United States Stands Strong/ Europe Stands Firm/ Japan Back to Normal/ China Expands/ Looking Good Globally
University of Michigan has released 2017 January consumer confidence index, from 92.0 in 2016 January to 98.5, in the consumer confidence continues to increase, retail sales (excluding car sales) to 3,742 billion US dollars, the year up by 5.3%. Coupled with the recent US Bureau of Economic Analysis released the fourth quarter of last year, the annual rate of consumption of 2.8%, indicating that the US private consumption began to warm. In the same month, the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing and non-manufacturing were 56.0 and 56.5, respectively, while non-farm employment (private sector) increased by 23.7 million people compared with the previous month, a net increase over the same period last year of 218.1 million people, the unemployment rate was 4.8%, compared with the same period last year decreased by 0.1. This month's consumer price index (seasonally adjusted) came to 244.2, an increase of 2.6% over the same period last year. Corresponding to the expansion of consumption & production and increased demand for labor, you can infer that the United States is currently in the demand-driven inflation stage, in other conditions remain unchanged, the United States is expected to be stable and sustained recovery. However, the US inflation rate is too fast, the Fed will raise interest rates in action and will be worthy of our focus.
The manufacturing and service purchasing managers' index of the Eurozone in 2017 January, respectively, were 53.7 and 55.2, and the confidence index for industry and services (annual growth rate) came 0.8 (3.9%) and 12.9 (1.3%). The overall unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate came to 9.6% and 20%, down 0.8% and 1.7% from the same period last year. This shows that the production surface is continually improving and contributing to increase. In the same month, the consumer price level came to 107.7, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year, the largest increase since last June. The sales volume of the Eurozone in the period from June to December of 2016 was recorded, and the real estate sales margin index (seasonally adjusted) was in the range of 103.5-105.1, with an annual growth rate of between 2.56-4.33%, is onward in growth. In 2017 January consumer confidence index (annual growth rate) rose to -4.9 (1.4%) under the conditions, it is reasonable to speculate that private consumption is gradually recovering. In summary, the Eurozone has been completely out of the swamp, began to enter the demand-driven inflation stage, in others remain unchanged, you can expect the Eurozone will continue to recover steadily.
Japan's economy under Europe and the United States gradually improved, the trade performance continuing to improve, in January 2017, the export value came to JPY 54.2 trillion and 65.1 trillion, the annual growth rates were 1.32% and 8.51%. Exportation improved over industrial production performance, the same month industrial production index (seasonally adjusted) to 99.8, compared to the same period last year increased by 1.53%, manufacturing and services industry purchasing managers are also located in the expansion of the index, the index were 53.3 and 51.9. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was 3% in the same month, down 0.1% from same period last year, while the number of employment was 6,504 million, a decrease of 46 million over the same period last year. The expansion of labor demand, confirms the Japanese production has been a significant improvement, but also into the private consumption for a breath of fresh air. The retail sales for January 2010 totaled JPY 11.6 trillion, up 0.99% from the same period last year, while the consumer confidence index (seasonally adjusted) came to 43.2, up 0.9% from a year earlier. Both private consumption and industrial production expanded to create demand-driven inflation, with the consumer price index of 100 in the same month, with an annual growth rate of 0.5%. Although the inflation rate is still less than 1-3% of the ideal interval, but observed the trend of Japan's industrial inventory index, since June last year, the annual rate of change in the range of 0.0% and -4.81%, showing the depression of the inventory has been consumed, the future demand gap will be filled by the real production, you can boldly predict Japan moving towards into a stable recovery stage.
Benefited from the European and American economy improved, China's exports in January 2017 annual growth rate of 7.9%, while imports by the Lunar New Year in advance of the impact of the annual growth rate of 16.7%. Export growth to drive the industry performance, manufacturing production index of 53.7 at same month, an increase of 3.5%, and according to the new financial group announced by the Chinese manufacturing and service industry purchasing managers were 51 and 53.1, located in the expansion of the interval level. In the private consumption, by the Lunar New Year, the January 2017 non-manufacturing sales price index of 51, compared with the same period last year increased by 3.1%, and pushed up the consumer price index annual growth rate of 2.5%. Overall, China in 2016 continued to grow in private consumption, while the manufacturing sector continued to grow, and in the export conditions gradually improved, can be expected China's economic growth rate will gradually and steadily expand in 2017.
Domestic Status: Looking Good Globally/ Stock Market Rose/ Domestic Consumption
As the European and American economy improved, Taiwan's dazzling trade performance in January 2017, exports worth USD 237 billion, the total import value of USD 202 billion, the annual growth rate of 7.01% and 8.58%. Export growth has led to domestic production performance in January, the industrial production index was 104.8, up 2.8% over the same period last year; manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers index were 53.4 and 54.1, while in the expansion level. Observing the inventory index of the manufacturing sector, since May 2005, the annual growth rate began to shift from negative, while January 2017 that non-farm sector employment of 1,075.8 million, a net increase of 70 thousand over the same period last year, the same month. The unemployment rate was 3.78%, down by 0.09%. The reduction in inventories and the increase in labor demand shows that Taiwan’s production sector is in the stage of expansion and is conducive to pushing up our country's private consumption. Although the export growth will drive the sales performance of our wholesale industry, but by the Lunar New Year coming in advanced to impact of the wholesale business in January 2017, NTD 7,984.1 billion, 0.82% annual decrease.
In January 2017, although the stock market influenced by the new US government policy of its uncertainty and the impact of the annual holiday, but the international boom to improve the fundamentals of the enterprise, incentive circulation weighted stock price index closed at 9,447.9 points, up 2.1%, this contributed to Taiwan’s short-term consumption. In the month of January, the turnover of retail sales was increased to NTD 3,774.1 billion, with the red envelopes effect, the demand for food, clothing and furniture, with an increase of 3.85%. At the same time, the year-end dinner and pre-ordered Lunar New Year’s Eve food and other needs, to lift the performance of the catering industry, thus the turnover has break the previous year in a record high of NTD 415.1 billion, an increase of 10.5%.
Indicator Score: Flat as the Sound of Thunder/ Excellent Index Score
ISI indicators are divided into three major sources, respectively, for the securities markets, salaries and operating conditions. In 2017, the analysis for the following:
Securities Market: Business services industry-related stock index was affected by the fundamentals of business improved, turnover value is slightly reduced by the transaction volume, and remained as flat as last month. In January 2017, the index score was 100 points.
Salaries: The number of employment and average salaries in the business services sector is as flat as the previous month, while the overtime and net entry rate of employees are improved. In January 2017, index marked up to 102 points.
Operating Conditions: Wolesale, retail and catering industry turnover by the annual holiday lift, road vehicles and trucks freight tonnage also increased. In January 2017, the index score was 100 points.
