Commerce Development Research Institute (CDRI) held a press conference today (5th Feb) for the updated version of “Index of Service Industry (ISI)” and the establishment of “Digital Innovation System Service Center”. CDRI’s Economic Cycle Forecast Team indicates that the economy is continuing booming now, but should be aware of its weakening soon, especially in the second half year.
As the technology application and smart retail leading the trend, smart manufacturing conducted by system service will also become the mainstream of IoT. During the press they announced the establishment of “Digital Innovation System Service Center”, which will provide upgrade service for commerce service industry. Chairman Hsu pointed out that the two service platforms will help CDRI to provide better services for businesses and for government to make policy more properly.
To meet the actual needs of businesses and provide small and medium enterprises a more provident indication of the market as reference, “Index of Service Industry” will no longer indicate as light with colors. Chairman Hsu added, according to the latest four cycles expansion average of 25 months (longest 36 months, shortest 20 months), the recovery started from February 2017 may continue to the end of the year.
However, based on the cycles of “Coincident Composite Index” before (ex: 2009-2011 V-shaped recovery, 2002-2004 U-shaped recovery), this time the booming is rather weak and causing worries for a nipping in the bud, chairman Hsu explained.
Generally, “Leading Composite Index” has wider amplitude than “Coincident Index”, a bigger rise indicates stronger recovery. But the “Leading Index” is now weakening in the present cycle, which means the “Coincident Index” will rise feebly as well. This shows the lack of resilience to take the future recession, and raise the probability of fall afterwards.
