Coincident Index

　CDRI Business Cycle Prediction Team explained, the “Leading Composite Index” which compiled base on the Business Composite Index by NBER of United States, can be a indicator of overall commerce service business situation, the “Coincident Composite Index” has been in the lead of the” Leading Composite Index” for seven months, will start to decline on October, and the degree of single month declination (0.04) will be bigger than the forecast in past five months which was at the average of (0.038). Although the cycle index is still exceeding the long-term tendency 100, which is 100.13, but the declination might be the weakness of recovery. We need to inspect the effects of our banking, finance, trading or labor policies, and take precautions before it is too late.

Three in Six Minor Indexes Show Recession in the Leading Index 

In the data of the first season this year by Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, there are three changes shows harmful in the business cycle indicator system, including “Civil Substance Capital Formation” cycle index is declining from January to March, “Unemployment benefits first authorization acceptance number (reciprocal)” declined in February and March,” Commerce Service Industry Employment net entry rate” reduced in February and March. The stagnation of investment and employment lead to the declination sign of the Leading Indicators in October.

 Business Cycle Composite Index for Taiwan Service Sector

 Source：CDRI Business Cycle Forecasting Team