Authors: Tain-Tsair Hsu（許添財）, Shin-Hsien Chen（陳世憲）

【Abstract】

The CDRI business cycle indicator shows that Coincidental Cyclical Composite Index for Service Industry (CCCIS) in January 2025 indicates a significant downturn in Q4 2024. The original forecast had projected the index to rise to 1.1789 Standard Deviations by January 2025, but the actual value only reached 0.1047 Standard Deviations. Furthermore, the forecast for July 2025 predicts a drop to -0.2821 Standard Deviations, signaling a clear trend of slowing down.

Leading Cyclical Composite Index for Service Industry (LCCIS) rebounded in July 2023 after hitting a trough, showing an increasing upward trend. It moved from -0.5 Standard Deviations in November 2023 and reached 0.8669 Standard Deviations in January 2025, suggesting continued upward momentum in the business cycle.

Despite the upward movement in LCCIS, the divergence between LCCIS and CCCIS in Q4 2024 presents an interesting anomaly that warrants further examination.

There are some key points and policy implications regarding the current changes in Business Forecast for Taiwan’s Commercial Service Industry as follows:

1.     Divergence Between CCCIS and LCCIS in January 2025: While LCCIS continued to rise, CCCIS started to decline.

Among the five sub-indicators of CCCIS, three showed signs of downward turning. Specifically, the Accommodation and Catering Industry continues to decline, showing signs of recession; The Number of Employees in the Service Industry continues to drop, with the business cycle trend value falling below its long-term trend value; and the Real Estate and Residential Service Industry has started to its downward trend slowly, thus contributing to the overall downward of the Composite Index.

Observing the business operating factors from the indicators’ behaviors, the job market is clearly facing obstacles. The “Net Entry Rate of Employees in the Commercial Service Industry” from Leading Indicator and the “Number of Employees in the Service Industry” from Coincidental Indicator both show downward trends. However, the increasing trend in the “Initial Acceptance of Unemployment Benefits(reverted)” indicates that there is no concern about unemployment rate worsening. This suggests that the labor shortage has already suppressed employment growth momentum, which in turn affects productivity growth. Furthermore, persistent inflation pressures and cost push hinder effective demand growth, indicating that business operations are under threat of erosion of sales and profits. While the Real Estate and Residential Services Industry has not yet seen a recession, its growth has been decreasing, with speculative demand in the real estate market already limited. This shows that the central bank’s tightening policies on home loan credit are taking effect, may also impact the productivity of the Service Industry and growth in Private Consumption.

2.   Economic Growth Contribution in 2024: Net Exports made a negative contribution. Economic growth largely relied on domestic demand, particularly Private Investment and Consumption, while the Service Industry contributed more than the Industrial Sector. However, the productivity growth rate of the Service Industry has long been lower than that of the Manufacturing Sector, which is heavily dependent on the Semiconductor Industry. This severely uneven trend in basic industrial structure of Taiwan’s economy and the current uneven economic recovery have resulted in a vicious cycle, undermining the possibility to boost and balance the further growth of productivity.

3.     Global Economic Context: Reflecting on the so-called “Trump 2.0 Era”, it seems that his unconventional approach of “Governance by Business Economy” could be observed. Non-economic interventions could be expected to proliferate, creating unprecedented uncertainty and unpredictability. Nevertheless, the end result eventually still lies in the competition for productivity. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) centers on two key objectives: preventing China from surpassing the U.S. and revitalizing American productivity.

In the era of Globalization, China “caters to” the needs of American multinational enterprises and the U.S. governmental policies, and “lures” the American enterprises which usually focus on self-interest and the naive elites of policy making and opinion leading, who believe in the automatic adjustment and balancing function of free competition and interdependence. This has led to China’s productivity rapidly surpassing that of the U.S. and overwhelmingly taking over the U.S. consumer market.

To boost productivity, the innovation in technology and the reform of system are essential, which will reduce business costs and increase efficiency. Innovation must be backed by investment, and the new value- created requires a market to be realized. The U.S., with its advanced technology and big consumer market advantages, should invest in itself or encourage investment into the nation. The incentive for investment will no longer be a mere allure, but coercion. “Reciprocal tariffs” are a tool of such coercion. Since tariffs can offset some of the foreigners’ competitiveness with higher productivity, if tariffs fail to generate hopeful results, embargoes then would be imposed, and even the investment to the U.S. from them would also be prohibited, making it clear that investment in the U.S. is exactly necessary. In the past, people generally believed that Chinese products were inexpensive, and the United States had no choice but to buy them. Now Trump wants to take back control, create buyer advantages, allow the United States to regain the right to choose through anti-dependency.

However, after all, a trade and tariff war will inevitably lead to a contraction in global trade markets, despite short-term productivity competition resulting in winners and losers. Eventually, other long-term solutions will be necessary to sustain global economic growth and ensure the continuity of capitalist markets operation.

4.     Implications for Taiwan: Considering the current domestic and international economic situation, Taiwan’s investments in the U.S. and abroad are being welcomed. Taiwan’s domestic market size is always limited, so to access larger markets, Taiwan must venture abroad to avoid any possible obstacles arising from the new international protectionism. The key to Taiwan’s success lies in its own domestic strength, which must be continuously reinforced. It’s both necessary and worthwhile for Taiwan’s government and enterprises to work closely together to create an environment and opportunities for the people to have high quality of life and work efficiency. Otherwise, the one-way outflow of capital and technology in the long run might cause the vitality of innovation and regeneration in society to be exhausted and never return.

1. Comprehensive analysis and prediction

CDRI finds that the Coincidental Cyclical Composite Index for Service Industry (CCCIS) has bottomed out in August 2022 of -1.0057 Standard Deviation. It peaked at 0.6130 Standard Deviations in April 2024 but dropped to 0.1047 Standard Deviations in January 2025. The forecast predicts it will continue to decline to -0.2821 Standard Deviations by July 2025, indicating that the recovery momentum in the Commercial Service Industry has lost its original strength and is starting to shift toward a slower downward trend. (See Figure 1 and the appendix below)

Figure 1. “Tendencies and Forecasts of the Coincidental Cyclical Composite Index for the Service Industry”

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI

Released by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS): The economic growth rate for 2024 stood at 4.59%. Growth drivers have shifted from Net Exports in H1 to Private Consumption. Private Consumption contributed the most at 1.37%, followed by Private Investment at 0.93%. Public sector spending, including Government Consumption, Government and Government‑Operated Enterprise Investment, contributed 0.73%. Inventory Changes contributed -1.79 %, and Net Exports contributed -0.10% (See Table 1).

Looking at the contribution by Industry, the Service Industry grew by 4.69% in 2024, slightly below the Industrial Sector’s growth of 7.15%. However, the Service Industry contributed 2.8% to GDP, which was higher than the Industrial Sector’s contribution of 2.77%.

Table 1. 2024 economic growth rate and growth contribution rate, by sector

                                                                                                                                      Unit: Millions of New Taiwan Dollars; %

Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, and the Business Cycle Forecasting Team of CDRI 

Table 2. 2024 economic growth rate and growth contribution rate, by industry

                                                                                                                                     Unit: Millions of New Taiwan Dollars; %

Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, and the Business Cycle Forecasting Team of CDRI

2. Service industry business cycle outlook

【Regarding the indicator system】

The business cycle Composite Index system on the Time Series Analysis. We analyze the relevant economic indicators in the time series and select indicators based on their significance to the business cycle and stability of their cyclicality.  They are then classified into leading indicators, coincident indicators, and lagged indicators through the use of statistical analysis and verification.

The cyclical trend of the Composite Index of coincident indicators is shown to be highly correlated with the cyclical trend of the GDP, and the forecast value of the Composite Index of the coincident indicators, estimated by the Leading Indicator Composite Index, could be used to forecast the moving trends of the GDP.

The cyclical trend of economic indicators fluctuates around the long-term trend. The long-term trend value is normalized to 100; cyclical trend values greater than 100 indicate a recovery or prosperity stage while values below 100 indicate a recession or depression stage.

The standardized changes of the indicators’ cyclical trend values (in Standard Deviation units) are added up to become a Composite Index, and it fluctuates around the long-term trend value with a Standard Deviation of zero.

【Latest Indicator Trends】

The Leading and Coincidental Composite Indices Curve for this business cycle’s indicator system is shown in Figure 2.

Leading Cyclical Composite Index (LCCIS) has dropped from its peak of 0.8220 Standard Deviations in November 2021 to a trough of -0.6853 Standard Deviations in June 2023. It then rose steadily, reaching 0.0664 Standard Deviations in May 2024 and 0.8669 Standard Deviations in January 2025. This represents 19 consecutive months of increase. While the upward trend slightly slowed in Q4 2024, it’s expected that the economy will continue to rise for the next six months. However, the divergence between the CCCIS and LCCIS, with the latter turning downward, warrants attention.

Among the individual sub-indicators of the LCCIS, the “Real GDP of Transportation and Storage” and the “Net Entry Rate of Employees in the Commercial Services Industry” continue to show downward trends, while the other five sub-indicators are still rising. The rate of increase in most of these indicators is stable, except for the Commercial Service Industry Stock Price Index and the Real GDP of the Financial and Insurance Industry, which have slightly slowed.

CCCIS, directly impacted by the pandemic, fell from its peak in August 2020 to a trough of -1.0057 Standard Deviations in August 2022. After recovering, the business cycle trend value reached 0.0826 Standard Deviations in August 2023 and peaked at 0.6130 Standard Deviations in April 2024. However, it has reversed direction and continued to slow, dropping to 0.1047 Standard Deviations in January 2025, with a forecasted decline to -0.2821 Standard Deviations by July 2025. The Commercial Service Industry’s business cycle is clearly entering a downward trend (See Figure 1 above and the attached appendix).

Among the five sub-indicators, in Q4 2024, in addition to the continuing downturn in the Accommodation and Catering Industry, the “Real Estate and Residential Services Industry” and “Number of Employees in the Service Industry” also turned downward. Notably, the two sub-indicators that continue to rise, “Real GDP of Wholesale and Retail Industry” and “Real Consumption of Residential Services, Utilities, and Other Fuel Industries,” have seen a slowdown in their rate of increase.

Figure 2. Leading and Coincidental Cyclical Composite Index for the Service Industry

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI

A. Leading indicator series

a. Business cycle trend of real GDP of the Transportation and Storage Industry has declined for 16 consecutive months, with the rate of decrease showing no signs of slowing down. It has now dropped below the long-term trend value (100), and the year-on-year growth rate has also slowed for six consecutive quarters, with only 0.4% growth in Q4 2024. This indicates a clear slowdown in the economy. The cyclical tendency of this sub-indicator started to decline after ending a 23-month upward streak since October 2023. As of January 2025, it has been decreasing for 16 consecutive months, and the trend value has stands at 95.04, significantly below the long-term trend value, with no sign of a reduction in the pace of decline.

However, the annual growth rate (YOY), calculated based on its actual value, reached as high as 45.3% in Q2 2023. However, it has slowed down continuously, and by Q4 2024, it had dropped to 0.4%, indicating a booming economy. The economy has cooled down, and the output value is sluggish. It seems that we need to find countermeasures quickly.

Figure 3. The annual growth rate of Transportation and Storage GDP and business cycle trend, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

b. This cyclical trend reversed in December 2023 and continued rising. By September 2024, the cyclical value exceeded the long-term trend (100). The actual value also shifted to positive growth starting from Q2 2024. The trend continues to rise steadily.

The cyclical trend value of this indicator began declining in April 2022 after reaching its peak, and experienced a 20-month decline, reaching a trough of 96.37 in November 2023. It then began to recover, and by September 2024, the cyclical trend value has risen, surpassing the long-term trend value in September 2024, indicating the continuation of a new wave of investment growth.

Additionally, the year-on-year growth rate, calculated based on actual values, turned negative from positive in Q1 2023, dropping to -16.3% in Q4. Fortunately, it turned positive again in Q1 2024 at -5.8%, and further increased to 7% in Q2, 6.5% in Q3 and 11.7% in Q4, demonstrating that domestic investment enthusiasm continues to rise.

Figure 4. Annual growth rate and cyclical trend of Private Real Fixed Capital formation, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

c. The Net Balance of Trade in Services Revenue and Expenditure, which saw a rare surplus during the pandemic, has now reverted to the historical deficit norm. The deficit reappeared in Q1 2023 and continued to worsen, with the Net Balance dropping by as much as -375.7% YOY in Q4 2023. However, in Q1 to Q4 2024, the decline slowed to -38.6%, -84.5%, -9.0% and -7.6, respectively. The cyclical trend value stopped declining in September 2023, rising from 84.26 in August to 120.63 by January 2025. This suggests that the trend of the Service Industry’s trade deficit is improving.

Looking at its actual GDP value, Taiwan’s Service Industry, which had enjoyed a rare trade surplus since Q2 2020, has encountered a reversal after 11 quarters. In Q1 2023, it has reemerged as a trade deficit, with the total annual service trade deficit amounting to $10.09 billion USD. This is equivalent to 10.55% of the total Merchandise Trade Surplus of $95.617 billion USD during the same period. The service sector had a $12.412 billion deficit in 2024, 12.33% of the $100.699 billion commodity surplus. When comparing service trade to goods trade, the Service Industry’s deficit relative to the goods surplus has worsened.

Figure 5. Annual growth rate and cyclical trend of net trade in Services Revenue and Expenditure, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

d. Initial Acceptance of Unemployment Benefits (inverted) indicates that the overall pressure on labor demand is continuing to rise.

The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of the business cycle, while Initial Acceptance of Unemployment Benefits can predict the unemployment rate. This lagging indicator can, in turn, predict leading indicators. Therefore, the Initial Acceptance of Unemployment Benefits (inverted) can be seen as a leading indicator of the business cycle. Employment is a coincident indicator of the business cycle, so the Initial Acceptance of Unemployment Benefits (inverted) can also predict employment trends.

The cyclical tendency of this sub-indicator reached its peak in May 2022, with an index of 110.14, showing a rapid recovery in labor demand. However, it began to decline afterward. By April 2023, the Initial Acceptance of Unemployment Benefits (inverted) dropped below the long-term trend value of 100. By December 2023, it bottomed out at 94.87. However, it then rose quickly, and by November 2024, it exceeded the long-term trend value of 100. By January 2025, it reached 102.37, indicating that the demand for employment will continue to rise, and the rate of increase is accelerating.

Figure 6. Number of the initial acceptance of unemployment benefits (inverted) and the annual growth rate and cyclical trend January 2020 to January 2025

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

e. Net Entry Rate of Employees in the Commercial Services Industry reached its lowest point in January last year, and rose all the way, indicating that there is a mild expansion in employment demand in the Service Industry.

The cyclical tendency of this sub-indicator hit the bottom in December 2022, with a cycle index of 97.54, then began to rise, reaching a cyclical trend value of 101.12 as of July 2024, before declining again, reaching 100.75 in January 2025. Although it still exceeds the long-term trend value, the expansion trend of employment in the Commercial Service Industry has started to slow down.

Figure 7. Annual changes and cyclical trends in the net entry rate of Employees in the Commercial Service Industry, January 2020 to December 2024

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

f. The declining trend of the Commercial Services sector’s Stock Price Index hit a low in June 2023 and has been rising. However, its rate of increase slowed in Q4 2024.

The cyclical tendency of this sub-indicator reached its peak in October 2021, with an index of 108.75, and started to decline, reaching a low of 96.14 in June 2023. Then it rebounded all the way. As of July 2024, it has returned to the long-term trend value (100), However, the rate of increase slowed in Q4 2024.

An indicator is the annual growth rate of the actual Stock Price Index. It turned negative in May 2022, and the decline continued to expand, with a drop of over 30% in September. In December 2022, and January 2023, the decline remained in double digits at -24.7% and -19.12%, then turned to single-digit negative growth. From May 2023 to August 2024, the growth rate fluctuated between positive and negative single-digit values. In September and October 2024, the growth rate turned positive with increases of 12.3% and 15.1%, respectively. However, it reverted to single-digit growth and decreased month by month, reaching -0.7% in January 2025. This shows that the growth trend has started to flatten again.

Figure 8. The annual growth rate and circular trend of the Stock Price Index of the commercial service industry, January 2020 to January 2025

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

g. The real GDP growth rate in the Finance and Insurance Sector had four consecutive quarters of negative growth and turned positive in Q2 2023. The economic cycle trend has been steadily rising since hitting a low in February 2023. By February 2024, the cyclical trend value surpassed the long-term trend value of 100, reaching an unprecedented high of 103.47 in January 2025.

The cyclical tendency of this sub-indicator peaked at 102.98 in July 2021, then declined, falling below the long-term trend value of 100 in April 2022, and reaching a trough of 96.57 in February 2023. After reversing, it has steadily climbed and reached 103.47 in January 2025, although the rate of increase began to slow down slightly in H2 2024, indicating that the economy is still in stable recovery.

Looking at the year-on-year growth rate of this indicator, it began to decline in Q2 2022, with negative growth rates of -3.7%, -6.3%, and -7.9% in Q3 and Q4 2022, and -2.4% in Q1 2023. It turned positive in Q2 2023 with a growth rate of 1.7%, then increased to 8.3% in Q3 2023, and further accelerated to 10.7% in Q4 2023. In Q1 2024, the growth rate reached 17.1%, followed by 13.7% in Q2 2024, 11.8% in Q3 2024, and 11.9% in Q4 2024, confirming that the cyclical trend is still undergoing a rapid and sustained recovery.

Figure 9. Annual growth rate and cyclical trend of real GDP of Finance and Insurance Sector, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

B. Coincident indicator series

a. The real GDP cyclical trend and actual values of the “Real GDP Index of Wholesale and Retail” have both been steadily rising for seven consecutive quarters, although the pace of increase has begun to slow, indicating that the economy continues to recover steadily, although the pace of growth has slightly slowed.

The cyclical trend value of this indicator hit a trough of 98.80 in March 2023. Since then, it has risen for seven consecutive quarters, with growth accelerating slightly, reaching 101.83 by October 2024, reflecting the ongoing recovery of the sector.

The real GDP year-on-year growth rate for this sector showed declines of 2.4% in Q4 2022 and 6.7% Q1 2023, it reversed and increased, showing high growth rates around 5% in the first three quarters of 2024. The growth rate slowed to 2.7% in Q4 2024, indicating that the economy of this sector is still recovering, albeit at a slower pace.

Figure 10. Annual growth rate and cyclical trend of real GDP Index of Wholesale and Retail, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

b. “Real GDP of the Accommodation and Catering Industry” reached its peak in June 2023, and the cyclical trend value dropped below the long-term trend value to 99.79 in June 2024, falling further to 94.77 in January 2025. The standardized cyclical trend value has dropped to -2.2501 Standard Deviations, and the actual GDP has shown consecutive negative growth in the last three quarters of 2024, in line with both “historical experience” and “technical” recession definitions.

The cyclical tendency of this sub-indicator hit the bottom in August 2021, leading the economic recovery. The cyclical index steadily rose from the trough of 92.9, surpassing the long-term trend value of 100 by September 2022. In June 2023, the cyclical index reached its peak at 104.93. It then reversed its rise and started to decline, with the cyclical trend value falling to 94.77 by January 2025, signaling a rapid decline in the economy and entry into a recession.

The actual annual growth was severely impacted by the pandemic, it once reached its lowest point at -30.5% in Q3 2021. It then started to rebound, but the growth rates in each quarter fluctuated. In Q3 2022 and Q2 2023, there were exceptionally high growth rates of 47.4% and 38%, respectively. In Q3, there’s still a 13.53% growth rate, and 10.6% in Q4, but slowed to 3.3% in Q1 2024, and even dropped to -0.7%, -3.2 and -0.7% in Q2 to Q4 respectively, showing signs of a “technical recession.”

Figure 11. The annual growth rate and circular trend of real GDP in the Accommodation and Catering Industry, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

c. Real GDP of Real Estate and Residential Service Industry business cycle trend is on the rise from its trough in Q4 2022. While there hasn’t been significant long-term cyclical fluctuation, it has returned above the long-term trend since November 2023 but has gradually lost momentum. The cyclical trend peaked in July 2024 at 100.37, and as of January 2025, it has dropped to 100.28. While there has been no sign of recession yet, the economy is clearly showing signs of stagnation.

The cyclical trend of this indicator has experienced long-term slight fluctuations, with the index bottoming out in January 2023 at 99.19. By July 2024, it peaked again at 100.37, indicating that the pace of recovery has slowed compared to earlier. As of January 2025, the cyclical trend value has further declined to 100.28, suggesting that the economy is reversing downward, with a very slow decline, but clear signs of stagnation.

The actual annual growth rate reached -0.8% in Q1 2023, followed by steady recovery with increasing growth rates each quarter: 0.2% in Q2, 4.4% in Q3, and 6.0% in Q4. However, in 2024, the growth rates began to slow down, showing a clear trend of stagnation.

Figure 12. Annual GDP growth rate and cyclical tendency of Real Estate and Residential Service Industry, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

d. The economic trend of Real consumption of “Residential Services, Utilities, and Other Fuel Industries” has shown long-term stability with slight fluctuations. The cyclical trend has been rising for 22 months since April 2023, following a 30-month slight decline starting in October 2020. Though the pace is slow, it shows that the economy is recovering steadily.

The cyclical trend of this indicator has fluctuated slightly in the long term, never experiencing negative growth, but the rate of growth still follows a “growth cycle.” The cyclical trend reached a peak in September 2020 with a value of 100.29, then gradually declined, reaching a trough of 99.77 in March 2023. By March 2024, the trend had risen to 100.01, and as of January 2025, it reached 100.22, with the pace of increase slowing down in H2 2024.

Furthermore, the real annual growth rate has shown growth in every quarter since 2020, but the growth rate has fluctuated within a narrow range, with the highest rate being 3.1% in Q2 2020 and the lowest at 0.9% in Q2 2022. The growth rate peaked at 2.54% in Q3 2021, followed by fluctuations and a drop to 0.9% in Q2 2022. It then bounced back to 1.3% in Q3 2022, before gradually slowing down each quarter. In Q4 2023, the growth rate jumped to 1.8%, with Q1 2024 at 1.9%, Q2 at 2.5%, and Q3 at 2.2%. This indicates that although the year-on-year actual value growth remains positive, the long-term fluctuations are small, with the cyclical trend showing steady recovery but a slight reduction in growth in H2 2024.

Figure 13. Real Consumption of Residential Services, Utilities, and Other Fuel Industries, 2020Q1~2024Q4

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

e. Number of employees in the Service Industry has been rising steadily since June 2022. It returned to above the long-term trend value (100) in May 2023. And after 19 months of growth, it peaked at 100.30 in January 2024. However, it stalled afterward and accelerated downward in H2 2024. As of January 2025, the cyclical trend value has dropped below the long-term trend value, reaching 99.94. The standardized cyclical trend has also declined from 1.5882 Standard Deviations in January 2024 to -0.3171 Standard Deviations in January 2025. The actual employment growth rate has also dropped from a peak of 2.5% in September 2023, falling month by month to just 0.4% in December 2024, with 0.5% in January 2025.

Figure 14. The growth rate and cyclical tendency of The Number of Employees in the Service Industry, January 2020 to January 2025

Source: Business Cycle Forecasting Team, CDRI and Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan

C. Lagged indicator series

The lagged indicator includes Real Consumption of Tobacco and Alcohol, Real Consumption of Clothing, Footwear, and Apparel, Real Consumption of Furniture, Equipment, and Housekeeping, and the Number of Initial Recognition and Acceptance of Unemployment Benefits. The Lagged Index can be used as a reference for observing whether a business cycle is over. This article omits relevant analysis.

Appendix

Business Cycle Coincident Composite Index for Taiwan Service Sector