Commerce Development Research Institute (CDRI) announced that the "Index of Service Industry, ISI" in August 2017 represents the yellow red light of 105 points. The main reason is that in August benefited from the 3C industry (Computer, Communications & Consumer-Electronics) released the annual new product to stimulate the demand for Taiwan's exports of semiconductor, and promote the growth of related components, then drive the growth performance of Taiwan's wholesale industry. In the domestic market, August was blessed by important festivals such as the summer tourist season, Father's Day, Chinese Valentine's Day and school starting season, which promoted the performance of the catering industry and retail industry. The overall performance of the service industry remained "tend to vigorous" yellow red light in August.
New iPhone 8 released in September and began to pre-order for sell, but the iPhone 8 order amount is not as good as expected, lower than the performance of iPhone 6 and iPhone 7, also iPhone X will postpone its sell, as there are still some purchasing needs have not yet demonstrated, this phenomenon will affect our export momentum, thereby affecting the follow-up wholesale industry performance growth. In the domestic market, the Chungyuan festival and department store anniversary sales began in September, pushing up the store and retail sales revenue. In addition, the industry grabbed the opportunities of Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, promoting special offers to enhance cosuming capacity, also due to the Mid-Autumn Festival in October the needs for gifts and festive goods elevated, push the pre-order and wholesale Industry to grow, so that the September Index of Service Industry score rose to 106 points.
October is expected to be affected by the US Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the impact of the balance sheet will affect the international investment situation and consumers’ psychological expectation changed, thus led to the public to reduce consumer demand, thereby affecting our export momentum, and the wholesale industry performance will be Influenced, follow-up fermentation period worthy of follow-up observation. In the domestic market, due to the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the International Day, as well as the department stores anniversary sale, the industry launched the most concessions, will lead to the growth of integrated retail sales, is expected to stimulate the growth performance of retail, discount, catering and tourism. In addition, according to past data, shows that tourists from China to Taiwan will enhance the performance of tourism, despite there’s long holidays for China in October, but tourists from China to Taiwan has dropped, the estimated part of the performance will be affected. With the domestic and foreign economic impact, estimated that business in October that services industry index scores slightly down to 105 points, the signal for the "tend to vigorous" yellow red light.
Global Status in August: Global Booming Continues
The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was 96.8 in August, while the OECD's consumer confidence index was 101.17, up 0.72 percent from a year earlier. Sales of retail sales and catering services (excluding car sales) rose to $ 384.71 billion in August, up 4.17% from a year earlier. Consumer confidence and retail sales continued to grow, showing continued expansion of private consumption. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI were 58.8 and 55.3, respectively, still above the PMI bust line. August non-farm employment (private sector) to 124.432 million, an increase of 2.089 million over the same period last year, the unemployment rate fell 0.5% over the same period last year to 4.4%.
The EU consumer confidence index for the eurozone in August was -1.1, up 6.8% from the same period last year. The consumer confidence index surveyed by the OECD was 101.03, up 0.42% from a year earlier and the consumer confidence in the eurozone continued to increase in the same period, the eurozone consumer price index of 109, increase of 0.28% compared with July, the inflation rate of 1.49%, indicating that the eurozone of private consumption continued to heat up. The OECD's business confidence index was 101.36, up 1.01% from the same period last year, and in July, the OECD's business confidence index was 101.36, up 1.01% from the same period last year. The overall unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate were 8.8% and 18.3%, respectively, compared with the same period last year fell 0.8% and 2.1%, indicating that the euro area continued to improve the economy, consumption continues to expand. The August Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) came to the new highs this year with a score of 111.9. Overall, the European boom continued and the future prospect is positive.
Japan's August value of export and import were 57.72 billion and 53.97 billion US dollars, compared with the same period last year increased by 4.83% and 7.61%. In the continuous improvement of trade activities, the manufacturing sector continued to expand, the labor market to drive the positive development of the consumer market. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, which was above the prevailing level. The unemployment rate came to 2.8%, down 0.4% from the same period last year. The number of employment increased by 1.3% or around 850 thousands people from the same period last year. As the manufacturing and labor markets improved, making the domestic market expansion, in August the service purchasing managers index was 51.6, consumer confidence index of 43.7, an increase of 1.1% over the same period last year, retail sales to JPY 11.5 trillion, an increase of 1.7% over the same period last year. However, the consumer price index was 100.3, a slight difference compared with the previous months, August inflation rate was only 0.6%, Japan's performance was stable.
China's import and export growth rate in August were 13.3% and 5.5% respectively, the total value of imports grew, and the growth rate of export value was slower than in July. Viewing manufacturing performance in August, manufacturing index was 54.1, compared with the same period last year increased by 2.85%; manufacturing purchasing managers index was 51.7, compared with the same period last year increased by 2.58%, grew compared to data from July. In the domestic market, China's total retail sales of social consumer goods in August was RMB 3,032.97 billion, up 10.13% over the same period last year; the official non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was 53.4, down 1.1% compared to July, slowing the growth rate.
Domestic Situation in September: Export & Business Services Industry Performance continued to heat up
Global economy continued to improve, our August total exports of 27.77 billion US dollars, up 12.75% over the same period last year, in addition to showing our manufacturing industry continued to develop, driving the wholesale industry turnover, labor market demand increased. In August, the manufacturing index was 117.21, up 4.03% from the same period of last year; the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 58.8; the turnover of the wholesale industry reached 8,827 billion, up 5.99% over the same period last year; the number of non-agricultural employment to 10.82 million, an increase of about 89 thousands over the same period last year; the unemployment rate was 3.89%, compared with the same period last year decreased by 4.66%. The improvement in the production and employment markets will help the expansion of the domestic market, with the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index increasing from 54.8% in July to 55.2% in August, accelerating the pace of expansion. Due to the peak season in July, the retail sales in August increased by 4.3% over the same period last year, an increase of 1% compared with July, turnover reached 3,425.7 billion. According to the Central Weather Bureau statistics, in August continued to heat, Taipei for example, the highest temperature was 38.5 degree Celsius, an average of 31.1 degree Celsius, the climate of heat brought growth in drinks shops gross, turnover reached 39.1 billion, compared with the same period last year increased 4.2%. Overall, the business services industry was not bad, in August ISI index scores 105 points, the signal is still "tend to vigorous" yellow red light.
Indicator Score:
ISI indicators are divided into three major parts, respectively, for the securities market, salaries and operation, the analysis for the following:
l Securities market: Business services industry-related stock index fell but the transaction value of turnover grew, index score rose to 103 points.
l Salaries: Due to the larger decline of the average working hours, offsetting the positive performance of other manpower. August and July index are both 105 points.
l Operating Conditions: In addition to the information services industry turnover and freight tonnage index declined,other scores of indexes rise, August index scores 104 points.
