Commerce Development Research Institute (CDRI) announced today on 6th that the 2017 February "Index of Service Industry, ISI" in which has been active in the global economy and opened up exportation. However, Taiwan's commercial service industry due to domestic retail and catering in Lunar New Year holiday plus other effects, a substantial impact on retail and catering market performance, the overall index score slightly down to 103 points, business service lights converted to representative "stable" green light. Analysis of the business service industry in February slightly down for the cause of the business reflects the growth rate of the domestic wholesale business turnover cannot stop the decline in retail and catering consumption.
March into China's exports and domestic tourism in the traditional off-season, the overall performance of the business services industry due to export momentum and private consumption are likely to slow down under the premise of the business service industry index scores will be synchronized to 102 points. Maintain a green light that stands for "stability". It is worth observing the part of the US Federal Reserve System has raised interest rates in mid-March, on behalf of the US boom has been the trend of overheating, may help to boost the performance of Taiwan's wholesale industry is expected to stabilize the overall performance of Taiwan's business services industry.
Estimated benefited from the domestic April Qingming holiday effect, pulling retail related goods and other retail shopping boom. In addition, the tourism and amusement park industry have launched parent-child travel concessions trip, but also stimulated retail and catering performance. Taiwan's wholesale industry benefited from the United States, Europe and Japan with other international markets continued the heat, driven by Taiwan's export momentum, the overall business services industry index score up to 104 points, the lights converted to a representative "tend to warm" yellow light.
Global Status: Europe and the United States Rise/ Smooth Growth of Japan's Slow Domestic Demand in China
US consumer spending continued in January, the University of Michigan issued a consumer confidence index of 95.7 in February, an increase of 4.0% over the same period last year, OECD released consumer confidence index of 101.3, an increase of 0.71%, showing consumption demand continues to expand. February retail sales and catering services (excluding car sales) increased by 5.5%, sales amounted to $ 4,739.9 billion, indicating that the US private consumption continued in growth. Production performance is also quite impressive, manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers index, respectively are 57.7 and 56.5, with the expansion phase, which manufacturing purchasing managers index hit a new record over the past two years, showing business prospects for the commodity market is quite good. OECD issued a business confidence index of 101.0, an increase of 1.69%, which can be seen that the prospects for the future of US companies are quite optimistic. In the labor market, the number of non-farm payrolls (private sector) was 12,347.4 million in February, an increase of 22.7 million from the previous month, an increase of 215.6 million over the same period last year. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2% from 4.7% that confirms the optimism of consumers and businesses for the future. US consumer spending continued to heat up, in addition to stimulating the growth of real economy, also led to inflation, February consumer price index (seasonally adjusted) to 244.4, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year. In order to prevent the US inflation hitting too fast, the association has raising a yard on March 16th, in order to control the rate of inflation, reduce the risk of vicious inflation.
The eurozone consumer spending in February continued to heat up, the EU and OECD announced the eurozone consumer confidence index are showing growth, the index points to -6.2 and 101.0, the annual growth rate of 2.6% and 0.42% respectively; and the euro district real retail sales deflator (seasonally adjusted) was 105.1, an increase of 1.64% over the same period last year, indicating that consumer demand and private consumption did grow. Production sector also in the steady development, the euro area manufacturing and service industry purchasing managers index, respectively, 55.4 and 55.5, with the expansion phase. The OECD's corporate confidence index was 100.9, an increase of 0.63% from the same period last year, showing that both companies are both optimistic about the real intermediate demand and the future of the economy. The overall unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate in the euro area were 9.5% and 19.4% respectively, down 0.8% and 2.3% from the same period last year, showing the substantial expansion of the business and verifying the growth of the consumer confidence index. Consumer prices came to 108.1, an increase of 1.98%, indicating that the demand side of the expansion of driven prices continue to grow, the inflation rate has been quite close to 2.0% of the target value. In summary, the euro area in terms of terminal demand or production side of the extension of demand continues to expand, the eurozone economic confidence index came 108.0, an increase of 4.2%, the euro zone economic situation, showing a steady recovery trend.
Japan's export and import value in February were JPY 63.5 trillion and 55.3 trillion, an increase of 11.29% and 1.33%. In case of continuous improvement in trade activity, overall industrial performance has continued to grow. The index for industrial production (seasonally adjusted) was 102.2, which was 9.7% higher than that of the same period last year. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 53.3, and the manufacturing sector continued to expand, which helped to improve the labor market and private consumption. In February, the unemployment rate was 2.8%, 0.5% year-on-year, and the number of employees was 6,483 million, a net increase of 83 million over the same period last year, while the consumer confidence index was 43.1, an increase of 3.8%. Although the improvement in trade activity, but the price inflation is still slow, consumer price index of 99.8, an annual growth rate of 0.2%, indicating that the improvement of trade activities for the impact of private consumption is very limited.
China's export performance in February was not so good as expected, the export value of $ 1,200.8 billion, down 4.8%, although poor export performance, but the domestic demand is relatively dazzling. In February, the total retail sales of Chinese consumer goods fell by 9.54% to US $ 57,959.7 billion, while the import value was US $ 1,292.2 billion, up by 38.1%, showing the growth of private consumption in China. By the Chinese official published manufacturing and service industry purchasing managers index, respectively, 51.6 and 54.2, both show expansion of the situation, the consumer confidence index of 109.2, an increase of 5.2%. On a whole, in the case of continued expansion of domestic demand, will be able to maintain stable economic growth.
Domestic Situation: Overall Stable Growth Situation of Commercial Service Industry Goods, Wholesale, Retail and Catering
As the global economy continued to improve, driving our export performance, February export value of $226.6 billion, but the base period is low, making the annual growth rate jumped to 27.7%. Export growth to promote Taiwan's domestic production and wholesale industry performance, industrial production index came to 96.0, an increase of 10.6%, manufacturing purchasing managers index of 55.8, showing expansion trend, while the wholesale industry turnover to NTD 6,984.7 billion, an increase of 14.3%, contributing to domestic consumption performance. Production has improved, making the labor market improved, the number of non-farm employment of 1,075.1 million, a slight increase over the same period last year 7.6 million people, the unemployment rate of 3.85%, annual reduction of 0.1%, the overall increase in domestic income for private consumption. In February, the Taiwan composite index gained 9,750.47 points, up 3.2%, and helped to short-term consumption. On a whole, in February the continuation of the lunar new year holiday, school opening season, lantern festival activities, and 228 consecutive holiday, and international economy continues to turn for the better, the private consumption will be sustainable. However, after the spring festival that the buying can quickly slow down, the number of lesser working days less affected, the service industry purchasing managers index fell to 48.5, showing contraction of the situation. The turnover of the retail and catering sectors was 3,026.1 billion and 364.6 billion respectively. For the same period last year, the base period was higher and the annual growth rate decreased to -8.4%. The ISI index was slightly revised to 103 points, and the lights is back to the "stable" green.
In February 2017, driven by the recovery in Europe and the United States, Taiwan's export performance continued to heat up, pushing up our overall economic performance, but by the number of working days, and the rapid impact of buying gas, retail and catering industry compared to last year, the same period decreased by about NTD 309.7 billion. The gross tonnage of road freight dropped to 36.7 million tones and down 19.9% from the same period last year. On a whole, the performance of the commercial services sector benefited from the lunar new year holidays, resulting in a relatively high base period last year. However, the annual holiday season falls at the end of January, making the performance in February lower than in previous years. ISI indicator came to 103 points, the lights turn to representative "stable" green light.
March and April ISI Forecast:
March, although the number of working days returned to normal, contribute to export and wholesale industry performance. However, export and domestic tourism in the traditional off-season in March, the export and private consumption slow down, ISI indicator score is expected to come to 102 points, the lights continue to maintain the green light.
Early April ushered in the Qingming and Children's Day are important festival for the Chinese people, and the spring festival effect is similar; the other hand, the current decline in fertility situation, the child will drive the pet business opportunities which cannot be ignored, therefore, in the four consecutive days off effect, it is estimated that it will lead to domestic tourism and buying reaching another peak. Benefiting from the United States, Europe and other important economies continued to warm, is expected to have an important international market on goods, will lead the growth of the wholesale industry performance. In the case of both inside and outside, it is expected that the business services sector in April will return to the representative “tend to warm” yellow light with a score of 104 points.
